Experts Agree: Diesel Export Ban Means Higher Gasoline Prices

This week, news reports have swirled that the White House is considering imposing a ban on diesel exports. The pushback was swift and broad, with many experts specifically noting that a diesel export ban would lead to higher prices at the pump.

Here are a few notable examples:

“Analyst: Diesel export ban could cause higher gasoline prices, global recession”
(Houston Business Journal, 9/24/2026)
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“Cutting crude runs to manage the oversupply would shift the cost burden from diesel to gasoline, meaning a policy designed to bring ⁠relief at the diesel pump could end up driving prices higher at the gasoline pump.”
(Alan Gelder, Wood Mackenzie, 9/24/2026)
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“Gasoline and diesel are produced together, so the result would be less produced gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and higher pump prices.”
(Energy Policy Research Foundation, 9/24/2026)
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“If you can’t export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce US refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet fuel prices.”
(U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, 9/23/2026)
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“We urge you to reject export controls that would ultimately raise prices, undermine domestic production, and risk upending global supply chains at the worst possible time.”
(Letter from 28 free-market groups, 9/23/2026)
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“If diesel production is cut, other production falls too. So a diesel ban would likely push up gasoline prices as well.”
(Tom Pyle, American Energy Alliance, 9/23/2026)
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“[A]n export ban would trap Gulf Coast supplies in the region and compel refiners to cut daily output, driving up prices for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel.”
(Shuting Pomerleau, American Action Forum, 9/23/2026)
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“A run cut of this magnitude would inevitably lower the supply of gasoline and jet fuel, raising prices of these fuels.”
(‘How a US diesel export ban could impact the refining market,’ S&P Global [subs. req’d], 9/23/2026)
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“A diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs.”
(Morgan Stanley, 9/23/2026)
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“[B]anning diesel exports is unlikely to be successful in pushing diesel prices down aside from Gulf states, it will likely push refiners to cut production rates which could mean even higher gasoline prices as well.”
(Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy Head of Petroleum Analysis, 9/23/2026)
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“Banning diesel exports could mean less diesel production, less gasoline and HIGHER prices at the pump.”
(Stephen Moore, Committee to Unleash Prosperity, 9/25/2026)