Facts & Rumors # 581
January 18, 2025
Oil Glut in 2026. Oil glut will expand in 2026 as OPEC output rebounds, EIA says. Bloomberg. Global oil markets will face a widening glut in 2026 as OPEC brings back production and as output from the US, Canada and Guyana continues to grow, the US government said in its first set of forecasts for next year. World oil markets are expected to average a surplus of 800,000 barrels a day in 2026, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. That’s more than twice as large as the 300,000-barrel-a-day surplus the agency projects for this year.
U.S. Electricity Demand to Explode. NatGas Is the Answer. U.S. electricity demand is set to explode. That will make it harder to cut climate pollution. NPR. The United States is poised to burn a lot more natural gas in the coming years to meet soaring electricity demand, potentially locking in decades of emissions that are raising global temperatures. For power companies charged with keeping the lights on, natural gas looks like a reliable way to boost energy supplies for new data centers and factories, as well as consumer goods like electric vehicles and heat pumps.
NatGas Production and Demand to Hit Record Levels in 2025. Thanks, MDN. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. The EIA number crunchers are making the bold prediction that dry gas production will hit new record highs in 2024 and 2025. The EIA also predicts domestic gas consumption, which hit a record high in 2024, will hit a new record high in 2025 (although it will slip again in 2026).
Oil Is Booming. Jobs Are Not. U.S. oil production is booming. Oil jobs are not. New York Times. For years, as oil and gas companies increased production, they hired lots of workers, enriching communities across the United States. That is no longer true. The country is pumping more oil than ever and near-record amounts of gas. But the companies that extract, transport and process these fossil fuels employ roughly 25 percent fewer workers than they did a decade earlier when they were churning out less fuel, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data.
NatGas Critical to Successful AI Boom. U.S. needs natural gas to help power AI boom, oil group says. E&E News. Top brass at the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday that natural gas will be vital if the United States is going to lead efforts to harness artificial intelligence. Making the United States “AI dominant in the world” should be a priority for President-elect Donald Trump and his administration, said John Hess, CEO of the Hess oil and gas company, during API’s annual State of American Energy event.
Formentera Joins EOG in Wildcatting South TX’ Oily Pearsall Play. Hart Energy. Rumor had it more than a decade ago that the Pearsall Shale’s oil and condensate window underlying the Eagle Ford in south-central Texas was a new play. Today, “the trial’s still out,” Bryan Sheffield, managing partner, Formentera Partners, told Hart Energy. But he added, “We’re going to drill.”
U.S. Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame. Bloomberg. Opinion. For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients. An anonymous suite in Madison Avenue was the invisible hand gluing the petrostate to the US. Until it wasn’t. Last year, Riyadh closed its New York oil office – a sign of the twilight of Saudi crude in America.
U.S. Hydrogen Industry May Turn to Gas, Carbon Capture Under Trump. Bloomberg. The US hydrogen economy will likely rely on natural gas and carbon capture technologies rather than green energy in Donald Trump’s second term, according to BloombergNEF. Billions of dollars of investment have stalled in 2024 waiting for the Biden administration to formalize rules around the expected tax credits for green hydrogen, the analysts said in a report on Thursday.
NatGas Bans Hurts Minorities. This group says natural gas bans hurt minorities. It has gas industry ties. Washington Post. When Maryland state lawmakers proposed a major climate bill last year, they faced opposition from a surprising figure: ex-NFL player Gary Baxter. The former Baltimore Ravens cornerback argued that the measure, which would have banned the use of natural gas furnaces and water heaters in new buildings statewide, would raise energy costs for Black households.
Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Overtime for oil industry workers. Supreme Court rules day rate workers entitled to overtime pay. Legal Reader. In a highly anticipated case with major implications for the oil and gas industry, the United States Supreme Court held that an oilfield worker paid a day rate was entitled to overtime pay under federal law. The immense implications of this case on the oil and gas industry are illustrated by the fact that the Independent Petroleum Association of America, as well as the Texas Oil & Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute, filed amicus briefs with the Supreme Court arguing in favor of Helix’s position.
AI Data Center Coming to Westmoreland County, PA. Thanks, MDN. We have some exciting news to share. Datacenter builder/operator TECfusions, based in Tampa, Florida, has purchased 1,395 acres in Upper Burrell (Westmoreland County), PA, for a groundbreaking data center project called TECfusions Keystone Connect. The site is the old Alcoa R&D campus and surrounding real estate in New Kensington. The project will transform the shuttered office and industrial site into a state-of-the-art data center campus, with plans for 3 gigawatts (GW) of capacity to be deployed over six years. Put another way, some 3,000 megawatts of electricity will be required to power it. MASSIVE!
Current Oil Prices Likely to Continue in 2025. Early-year strength in oil markets likely to continue. Oil Price. The oil price rally that kicked off last week after the Biden administration announced the harshest sanctions yet on Russian oil has carried over into the new week. Brent crude for March delivery rose to above $82 per barrel this afternoon, while WTI crude for February delivery gained topped $80 per barrel. The rise took front-month Brent above the key 200-day moving average (currently $ 78.98/bbl for the continuous front-month contract) for the first time since July.
Expand Energy #2. Thanks, MDN. Enverus, a prominent analytics and advisory firm in the oil and gas space, released its Top 50 Public E&P Operators of 2024 list last week. Enverus is famously guarded in not allowing the media to publish their data, so we don’t have the full list of 50. However, Enverus shared the top three most prolific (by production) shale drillers for last year. Two of the top three are oil drillers in the Permian Basin (Exxon at #1, Occidental Petroleum at #3). However, at the #2 spot, nestled between those two, is Expand Energy, the new name for the combined Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. Yes, a natural gas company (gas converted to barrels of oil equivalent) is the #2 most prolific producer in the entire country, beating out Oxy! Most of the gas Expand produces is produced in the Marcellus/Utica.
EU Could Ban Russian LNG. EU mulls gradual ban on LNG imports from Russia. Oil Price. The EU is considering a ban on Russian LNG imports as part of its 16th sanctions package against Russia. This comes after the EU halted imports of Russian pipeline gas following the end of the Ukraine transit agreement. Several EU member states have already called for a complete ban on all Russian gas imports. The European Union is drafting the 16th package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which could include a gradual ban on EU imports of LNG from Russia, sources with knowledge of plans told Bloomberg on Wednesday.
$5 NatGas in 2025 and 2026. Thanks, MDN. Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online.
PA January 6, to January 16, 2025
County Township E&P Companies
1. Armstrong Boggs Snyder Bros.
2. Armstrong Boggs Snyder Bros.
3. Armstrong Boggs Snyder Bros.
4. Armstrong Boggs Snyder Bros.
5. Indiana Young INR OPR
6. Indiana Young INR OPR
7. Indiana Young INR OPR
8. Susquehanna Lathrop Coterra
9. Susquehanna Lathrop Coterra
10. Susquehanna Lathrop Coterra
11. Susquehanna Lathrop Coterra
12. Washington Smith Range
13. Washington Smith Range
OH January 5, to January 11, 2025
County Township E&P Companies
1. Belmont Mead Gulfport
2. Belmont Mead Gulfport
3. Belmont Mead Gulfport
4. Guernsey Center EAP OH
5. Harrison Freeport EOG
6. Harrison Freeport EOG
WV Permits January 6, to January 11, 2025
1. NO NEW PERMITS
