Facts & Rumors # 593
April 12, 2025
U.S. EIA Predicts Reduced Global Oil Demand from Trade Tariffs and Market Uncertainties. Offshore Technology. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a decline in global oil demand growth through 2026, driven by recent trade policy developments and oil production changes. This forecast is detailed in EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which highlights significant uncertainties in energy supply, demand and prices.
$50-a-barrel Oil Is a Problem for U.S. Trade Deficit. Bloomberg. Opinion. Here’s an economic truth that fossil fuel detractors rarely talk about: The US oil industry has done more to reduce its country’s trade deficit than any other. Thanks to geological luck, engineering prowess, and shrewd capitalism, the shale revolution turned what two decades ago was a nearly $400 billion-a-year oil trade deficit into a $45 billion surplus in 2024. Now, President Donald Trump, in theory the champion of “drill, baby, drill,” risks killing it.
Oxy Getting Higher Prices for Oil and Gas. Occidental Petroleum flags higher prices for oil and gas production in Q1. Reuters. U.S. shale firm Occidental Petroleum said on Wednesday the prices it received for oil and gas production during the first quarter were higher than in the preceding three months. Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $74.98 a barrel during the first quarter, up 1.3% from the prior quarter, while U.S. natural gas prices jumped 30%, helped by higher demand from a cold winter in the country. Last week, industry bellwether Exxon Mobil also signaled higher oil and gas prices and stronger refining margins would help lift its earnings by roughly $900 million.
West Texas, Oil Companies Brace for Downturn Following Trump’s Tariffs. Amarillo Globe-News. When President Donald Trump boasted about falling oil prices on social media early Monday, the Texas oil and gas industry didn’t cheer along with him. Trump’s latest round of tariffs set off unease among industry groups representing Texas operators. Trade leaders said Trump’s actions threaten the industry’s ability to continue meeting global oil demand. “Depending on the length and severity, many companies within, and reliant upon, the Texas oil and natural gas industry could struggle,” said Ed Longanecker, president of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association.
Abu Dhabi Buying in TX. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala buys its first stakes in U.S. gas projects. Bloomberg. Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co. agreed to buy a stake in natural gas production and export projects in the US, weeks after the Middle Eastern emirate promised major investments in America. Mubadala’s energy unit will purchase a 24% stake in private equity firm Kimmeridge’s SoTex HoldCo LLC, which operates a shale gas field and is planning a liquefied natural gas export terminal, the companies said in a statement.
Range in AI Data Center Development. Liberty Energy, Imperial Land Corporation (ILC), a real estate developer, and Range Resources, a natural gas exploration and production company, have signed a strategic agreement to support the development of a natural gas generation facility in the Fort Cherry Development District in Robinson Township, Washington County, Pennsylvania.
Asians to Buy More LNG. Asian nations promise to buy more U.S. gas to win tariff relief. Bloomberg. Asian governments from South Korea to Indonesia are rushing to sign up for liquefied natural gas purchases from the US, hoping to reduce trade surpluses with the world’s largest economy and secure some relief from President Donald Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, promising to “buy more” goods from America, said on Tuesday that would include LNG.
Taiwan Buying More U.S. LNG. Taiwan aims to triple US share of LNG to avoid tariffs. Bloomberg. In an effort to avoid tariffs, Taiwan is planning a surge in US purchases over the next decade that would triple the share of American liquefied natural gas in the island’s mix. State-operated entities could buy goods worth $200 billion from the US over the next 10 years, Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-Huei said Thursday, according to a report from Taipei-based Economic Daily News. The purchases would include boosting the share of US LNG in Taiwan’s total imports to 30% from current levels around 10%, he said.
EU Ready to Buy More U.S. LNG to Make Trump Happy. Rigzone. The European Union is ready to commit to buying more liquefied natural gas from the United States if that would appease President Trump and make him reconsider tariffs on EU imports, the EU’s energy commissioner has said. “There is potential for us to buy more LNG from the US but of course it needs to be on conditions that are also in line with our [green] transition,” Dan Jørgensen said, as quoted by the Financial Times.
Chevron to ‘Triple Frac’. Chevron to ‘triple-frac’ half of Permian oil wells in 2025 to cut costs, time. Reuters. U.S. oil major Chevron plans to increase the use of a technique that allows it to fracture subterranean rock in three wells at a time in the Permian basin, the company told Reuters, in an effort to cut the time and cost of producing oil. Chevron’s expansion of the technique, known as triple-frac, comes as the second-largest U.S. oil producer expects to continue growing output in the Permian, the biggest U.S. oilfield, even as it begins to slow spending in the basin.
Trump Pushing Constitution Pipeline. Trump is pushing for this pipeline. He’s in for a fight. Barron’s. A conflict over a proposed 124-mile natural-gas pipeline from Pennsylvania to upstate New York is shaping up to be one of the most consequential energy battles in the early days of the Trump administration. In a country with more than two million miles of oil and gas pipelines, the Constitution Pipeline would be little more than a stub.
Williams CEO Comments on Constitution Pipeline. A Northeast natural gas pipeline system canceled five years ago could be back on the table – or not – depending on regional support, according to Williams CEO Alan Armstrong.
During a press briefing in February to discuss the road to achieve energy dominance, President Trump said it was time to resurrect the Constitution Pipeline natural gas system, which had faced a brutal, eight-year battle.
Williams and its partners pulled the plug in early 2020 for the 30-inch diameter, 124-mile, 660 MMcf/d pipeline. The system as designed would have transported gas from Appalachia to New York, then connect to systems serving New England.
Even with the president’s support, though, the project is not possible without the region’s support, Armstrong said Wednesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global.
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“We’re not going to go putting our neck out until they invite us with the red carpet rolled out,” he said.
President Trump in February had said “all of the governors want this to happen, and I think it’s going to happen. It’s now going to happen.”
However, Armstrong said additional assurances were needed, including by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, whose state was instrumental in ensuring Constitution’s demise.
“We’re not going to until the governors up there, collectively including Hochul, say they’re going to come right out and be supportive of getting the infrastructure built,” Armstrong said.
Assurances also are needed that the Northeast’s leaders, including Massachusetts and New York, “eliminate natural gas bans in their markets,” he said. “Until that stuff happens, we’re not going to put capital at risk into those markets.”
Bloomberg reported that Hochul planned to meet on Friday with President Trump regarding the advancement of Constitution.
Less Pipe, More Costs
The Williams chief acknowledged that the New England area and other parts of the Northeast are missing out from the inability to access natural gas, leading to high electricity prices.
Natural gas prices during the winter months in New York and New England averaged higher than Henry Hub prices, according to NGI’s Daily Historical Data. Transco Zone 6 NY was averaging around $3.04/MMBtu higher than Henry Hub as cold weather plagued the state; prices skyrocketed close to $100 in mid-January.
Similarly, prices at the Algonquin Citygate, a key New England price hub, topped out at around $33.50 in January.
The inability to pipe natural gas into some northeastern areas also has caused another negative impact, according to Armstrong. Data center sponsors are bypassing the region, he said, because of the lack of natural gas to fuel facilities.
“We have so much more demand for gas to the South, and so many more projects, that we’re not going to stick our neck out,” Armstrong said.
Williams intends to “continue to build in areas where the states are supportive. Again, we’re not having problems building projects in Louisiana or Texas or Wyoming.” The areas not seeing gas infrastructure growth are states that have restricted infrastructure expansions.
“We know how to build a pipeline with very minimal impact to the environment,” Armstrong said.
Onerous Permitting
The Williams chief also touched on the impact from the Trump administration’s recent tariff actions. Are the prices paid for importing pipe and other infrastructure materials going to negatively impact the bottom line? The costs from tariffs are not as onerous as the costs and delays for permitting a project, Armstrong said.
“The pipeline part of our projects is a pretty small amount of the overall project. And really, the permitting cost and the risk of permitting is really the biggest risk that we manage…So I’m not too concerned about the Canadian and Mexican tariffs.” In addition, most of Williams’ pipeline today is sourced from Europe.
Moreover, because it “takes four years to get a pipeline project permitted, it gives us a long time to manage” the costs, Armstrong noted.
“I really wish that the American people understood that the pushback and resistance and all the stoppage that goes into a project is doing nothing,” Armstrong said of building out infrastructure. “It’s actually not the cost of the construction…Importantly, it’s the risks associated with putting money at risk and then getting the project stopped that is absolutely driving up cost to the American consumer.”
Williams is “absolutely in support of building Constitution Pipeline. We certainly are going to require the states to be in support of that as well…Obviously, we’re going to be working to try to gain the state support.”
PA March 31, to April 12, 2025
County Township E&P Companies
1. Bradford Athens Chesapeake
2. Bradford Athens Chesapeake
3. Lycoming Jackson Range
4. Lycoming Jackson Range
5. Potter Hector Greylock
6. Potter Hector Greylock
7. Potter Hector Greylock
8. Susquehanna Liberty SWN
9. Susquehanna Liberty SWN
10. Susquehanna Liberty SWN
11. Tioga Delmar Seneca
12. Washington Donegal Range
OH March 30, to April 5, 2025
County Township E&P Companies
1. Belmont Wayne SWN
2. Belmont Wayne SWN
3. Belmont Wayne SWN
4. Carroll Monroe EAP OHIO
5. Carroll Monroe EAP OHIO
6. Carroll Monroe EAP OHIO
7. Carroll Monroe EAP OHIO
8. Guernsey Richland INR OHIO
9. Guernsey Richland INR OHIO
WV April 3, to April 7, 2025
1. Doddridge Antero
2. Wetzel Antero
