President Trump won election as America’s 47th President with a victory speech promising to expand U.S. energy production, stating: “We have more liquid gold — oil and gas — we have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia.”
Energy was indeed on the ballot Tuesday as Trump repeatedly promised to unleash American energy throughout his campaign while Vice President Harris attempted to sweep over her anti-energy past. Key issues like fracking were critical in the states like Pennsylvania that ultimately sealed Trump’s re-election. In fact, a CNN exit poll confirmed that a majority of voters in the Commonwealth support fracking and found it key to securing America’s energy advantage.
Now, Trump’s victory – and a Republican victory in the Senate, and likely (as of writing this Wednesday morning) the House – means an almost certain reversal of current energy policy. So, what major issues are we watching?
1. LNG Export Ban
The billionaire-pushed LNG export ban has been widely criticized by energy experts, American allies, and politicians on both sides of the aisle. The science behind it has been debunked while Congressional members have taken aim at the study’s origin and influence. Public records even indicate that an environmental analysis may have already been completed, but buried due to results that didn’t fit the political narrative the Biden-Harris administration – or the environmentalists – were pushing.
In stark contrast, Trump repeatedly touted U.S. LNG during his first administration and has promised to lift the ban, calling LNG “good for the environment, not bad, and good for our country.”
As America is already facing the repercussions of the ban, it would be good news for the Trump administration to swiftly complete the environmental study, resume permitting, and recommence issuing permits that provide reliable and affordable energy security to the world.
2. Expanding Oil and Natural Gas Development
A Trump-Vance administration will differ from the Biden-Harris administration when it comes to expanding fracking on public lands and waters. Over the past several years, the Biden-Harris administration blocked drilling, restricted leases, and severely limited offshore development.
As the Wall Street Journal reported just a few years into Biden’s presidency, federal oil leases have slowed “to a trickle” under the current administration. And while arguments were made about a faux surge of oil drilling permits under Biden, a closer look at the data revealed that many of the permits approved by the Biden administration were actually granted on land that was leased during the Trump administration, with those lease grants under Biden reflecting the Department of Interior’s extreme delay in processing.
In contrast, Trump has promised to “free up the vast stores of liquid gold on America’s public land for energy development.” A second Trump term will likely see a resumption in natural gas and oil development – potentially in places closed under Biden-Harris like Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) – as well as an increase in speed in processing critical permits needed for industry certainty.
This is one of the core issues the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) has cited as we think about our association’s priorities in 2025, including equitable tax policies for energy businesses, sensible environmental regulations, access to federal lands and waters, infrastructure permitting including Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) facilities, and access to capital. We aim to have a dialogue with the incoming administration on these issues and the necessity for reliable and affordable energy for the American people.
3. Permitting Reform – Finally?
Permitting reform has for years remained elusive due to Congressional gridlock. Now, with a potential trifecta GOP majority, permitting reform will likely be top of the agenda for Senate and House energy committees.
In celebrating Trump’s victory, Sen. John Barasso (R-WY), the ranking member on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee who is vying to be the Senate majority whip, and co-leader of the bipartisan Energy Permitting Reform Act, also optimistically referenced Trump’s campaign promises to expand oil and natural gas:
“We chose a President who will unleash American energy [and] lower prices.”
Of course, given co-sponsor Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV), a staunch advocate for permitting reform, impending departure from the Senate, the fate of that bill and what is ultimately in it could look different. But we can likely expect movement on significant energy priorities, everything from pipeline projects – such as a reversal of the cancelation of the Keystone XL pipeline – to nuclear, to shortening NEPA reviews, to more power plants to facilitate expanding electricity demand, and more.
4. Climate Litigation
A Trump election may well imperil the climate litigation campaign that is seeking to take down American energy producers at the expense of American consumers. While the Executive Branch does not have explicit authority over the dozens of cases that are percolating within state courts, it may persuade the Supreme Court to finally put an end to this lawfare.
The Supreme Court is currently determining whether it will review Honolulu’s climate lawsuit and determine whether it should be permitted to be heard in state court. In June, it asked the Biden-Harris administration’s Solicitor General (SG) to file a brief expressing its view on the case. To date, the SG has not weighed in. If it does not do so by inauguration day, the matter will be handed to the Trump administration’s Solicitor General.
Either way, the Trump administration will now have the ability to express the view of the United States on climate litigation when requested by the Supreme Court. It is almost certain that that view will favor American energy producers over anti-industry activists. In fact, towards the end of the past Trump administration, it provided support to the defendant companies in a lawsuit brought by the City of Baltimore. This could be another decisive dagger in the ever-flailing climate litigation campaign.
5. EV Mandates
The Biden-Harris administration’s EPA oversaw stringent and burdensome tailpipe emissions rules that were a de facto EV mandate, a move that imperiled the auto industry, especially in key states like Michigan. In contrast, Trump has promised to roll back or eliminate many of these vehicle emissions standards as well as remove some subsidies and incentives that promote the production and adoption of electric vehicles.
As API’s Mike Sommers highlighted, Trump’s victory was a “clear signal” that voters want “choices, not mandates”:
We congratulate President Trump on his election victory. Energy was on the ballot, and voters sent a clear signal that they want choices, not mandates, and an all-of-the-above approach that harnesses our nation’s resources. https://t.co/VDbv08kg7X
— Mike Sommers (@mj_sommers) November 6, 2024
While we can expect reversals of the Biden-Harris EV mandates, it’s also worth noting that Trump’s promise to elevate Tesla CEO Elon Musk to a possible cabinet position could mean a delicate dance when it comes to EV policy.
Bottom Line: Energy was on the ballot this year, perhaps more than ever before, and President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect Vance repeatedly connected unleashing American energy as key to lowering prices for consumers every step of the way. Now, with an overwhelming directive from the voters to do just that, we can expect movement on long stalled energy issues that will give certainty and prominence back to an industry that helps keep America competitive and secure.
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