Prior to the beginning of last week, we forecast that the price of Brent crude would trade between $55 per barrel (bbl) and $56/bbl. The forecast was based on the expectation that oil traders were shifting to a more bearish sentiment. Furthermore, other key factors–geopolitics, the U.S. dollar, supply, demand and the refining sector–were expected to be neutral with respect to price of Brent crude. Our forecast proved to not be sufficiently pessimistic.The price of Brent crude started the week at $55.90/bbl, then starting declining with a significant drop-off on March 8 to $53.11/bbl. It continued to decline through the remainder of the week to close at $51.37/bbl. The price of Brent crude is now at the lowest level since November of 2016.
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