Solar installations worldwide are likely to drop by 16% in 2020 and a rapid solar recovery this year is unlikely, according to a new report by IHS Markit.

Global installations will likely drop from about 125 gigawatts in 2019 to about 105 gigawatts in 2020, said the report by Cormac Gilligan and Dr. Edurne Zoco.

The industry has been hurt by component shortages from China due to the New Year holiday and the subsequent industry halt due to the coronavirus.

“Throughout March, as the Covid-19 pandemic quickly spread around the world, disruption to supply has quickly turned to an unprecedented stall in global demand, switching the industry almost overnight from a sellers’ market to a buyer’s markets,” the report said.

What has happened will impact almost all big solar projects planned in the first half of 2020 and it will halt rooftop solar installations, it said.

It will also impact projects planned for installation in the second half of 2020, it noted.

China slowly resumed manufacturing, starting in late February, and could reach full capacity by the end of second quarter 2020, it said.

IHS said the virus will severely impact the planning and start of solar projects through the second half of 2020 with the hardest hit regions being Europe, India and the rest of Asia.

IHS said it expects solar installation to grow in China to 45 gigawatts. That projection is based on a strong demand for solar in the second half of 2020, it said.

Last year, China solar installation was about 30 gigawatts.

The report suggested that worldwide solar installation is likely to resume in 2021.

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