Turkish natural gas demand is anticipated to recover thanks to industrial and residential demand growth, Kallanish Energy learns from a new analysis.
According to Rystad Energy, gas consumption is set to grow after falling for two consecutive years. After reaching a record of 52 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2017, total gas demand dropped to 44 Bcm in 2019, mainly due to a switch from gas to renewables in the power sector.
But new forecasts suggest gas use in Turkey will rebound to 59 Bcm by 2030 and reach 71 Bcm by 2040. The consumption recovery is driven by high economic growth.
Industrial demand is set to reach 23 Bcm by 2030, up from 14 Bcm in 2019, while residential consumption is expected to rise from 13 Bcm to 17 Bcm over the same period.
“Natural gas demand in the power sector, however, is expected to continue to slide gradually as both renewables and coal-fired power plants are poised to displace gas in the coming decade,” Rystad said.
The forecast is for gas demand in the power generation sector to drop to 13 Bcm in 2030, from 14 Bcm in 2019.
Yet, with domestic gas production accounting for less than 1% of total demand, Turkey will continue to rely heavily on imports, unless it successfully develops its massive Tuna-1 gas discovery. (See related story)
The country currently imports around 59 Bcm of gas, both via pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Piped supplies from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan reached 33 Bcm, or 73% of total imports, in 2019. Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar are long-term suppliers of LNG to Turkey, but low spot prices have opened the market for U.S. suppliers recently.
In fact, this year, LNG has outcompeted pipeline gas in Turkey, the analysis said. The consultancy firm estimates that Turkish pipeline imports will drop to 30 Bcm this year, from 33 Bcm in 2019. Meanwhile, LNG imports are set to increase by 50% from 12 Bcm in 2019 to 18 Bcm in 2020.
This post appeared first on Kallanish Energy News.