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Expo/Industry events for the next few months

Marcellus-Utica Midstream
January 30 – February 1, 2018
David L. Lawrence Convention Center
Pittsburgh, PA 

Emerging Opportunities Ohio River Valley Conference
February 22, 2018
Oglebay Resort
Wheeling, WV 

For other events visit

Latest facts and a rumor from the Marcellus, Utica, Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara Shale Plays 

PTTGC Year End Statement.  PTTGC America had promised to provide an update state by the end of the year.  Here’s the statement.   

Update Coming In 2018

PTTGC America will have a significant update that will demonstrate momentum for this project early in 2018.  We thank all Ohio and Belmont
County partners for their support, and we wish you a happy holiday season.

We’re all hopeful the final approval for the project will come in early 2018.  

I’m still hearing the PTT is having issues on this project – finding a partner(s) and funding.  As you would expect, we are tracking this closely.   

Saudi’s Looking for Oil and Gas Deal in the U.S.  Saudi Arabia and its state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, are mulling oil and gas production investments in U.S. shale, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The report said Aramco and Houston-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer Tellurian have had “initial conversations” about Aramco either taking a stake in the company or agreeing to buy some of its fuel in the future.

Tellurian plans to build a gas business that includes roughly 27.6 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG production from the Driftwood LNG project, trading LNG cargoes and the development of new markets globally, Kallanish Energy learns.   

On Tuesday, the U.S. company announced its intention to develop three pipelines as part of a network to expand supply alternatives for the growing natural gas demand in Southwest Louisiana. The lines include: the Permian Global Access Pipeline, with the capacity to carry 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day (Bcf/d); the Haynesville Global Access Pipeline with identical capacity; and the previous announced Driftwood Pipeline, to carry 4 Bcf/d.

The proposed infrastructure, estimated to cost $7 billion, would serve the roughly 8 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas demand expected by 2025 in Southwest Louisiana. The firm didn’t say whether it was looking into partnerships or third-party investment.

Shale Oil Drillers Kick Off Big Production Gains in 2018.  Most of those gains will come from the Permian basin, a prolific oil-producing region in Texas and New Mexico. Production there is set to rise by 68,000 barrels a day, according to EIA. The EIA sees output growing by a more muted 9,000 barrels a day in North Dakota's Bakken shale and by 6,000 barrels a day in the Niobrara basin, which sits beneath Colorado and nearby states. Drillers in these regions free oil and natural gas from shale rock formations through hydraulic fracturing, a process of injecting water, sand and chemicals underground. The shale oil patch — where production can be quickly started up — is fueling a recovery in U.S. production following a slump caused by low crude prices. The 14-member oil cartel OPEC and the Paris-based International Energy Agency have also revised their forecasts for U.S. production. The three organizations see U.S. production growing between about 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day next year.

Cabot Drilling in the Utica in Ohio?  Earlier this year, Cabot Oil & Gas announced said it plans to spend $75 million in the first half of 2018 to look closely at two exploratory areas.

The Houston-based company gave no clue as to where those exploratory wells might be drilled and where that testing might take place.

It simply said $75 million was enough money for testing the two areas. If the tests reveal additional drilling is warranted in the second half of 2018, Cabot is prepared to sell off assets to fund that work, the company said last October in releasing its 2018 operating plan.

Now there is evidence that one place Cabot, a major player in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania’s Susquehanna County, might be looking at the western edge of Ohio’s Utica Shale, Kallanish Energy reports.

The company is very interested in crude oil possibilities in Ashland County, between Cleveland and Columbus, where Devon Energy failed to tap into Utica crude oil five years ago.

The news of Cabot’s interest in Ashland County came after local residents voiced concerns at a public meeting in Hayesville, the Mansfield News Journal newspaper reported Dec. 11. Ashland County is northwest of the main Utica drilling area in Ohio.

Residents reported at the meeting that at least one landowner has signed a lease with Cabot.

The newspaper reported Cabot spokesman George Stark said the company is considering several sites around Ashland County for an exploratory well.

There is no timetable for the Ashland project, Stark told the News Journal.

Ashland County is where Oklahoma-based Devon Energy drilled for oil in the early days of Utica Shale drilling -- with little or no success. The company drilled a single Ashland County well in 2011, which was plugged the following year, along with a well in Medina County, due to poor production.

The company reported it was disappointed in Ohio’s Utica Shale because it was not producing the volumes of oil the energy company had been expecting.

The news of Cabot’s possible interest in Ashland County surprised and delighted Jim Willis of Marcellus Drilling News. He called the potential development “huge news.”

He noted the company last May reported it was spending $125 million in 2017 to buy leases and drill five test wells, although it refused at that time to say where. The company said at the time that its focus was going to oil.

Cabot Leaving the Eagle Ford.  Is That Why It’s Going into the Utica?  U.S. shale energy company Cabot Oil & Gas said it was leaving parts of Texas behind in order to focus more on the Appalachia shale natural gas basin.

Cabot said it sold off around 74,500 net acres of assets in the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas to an affiliate of Venado Oil $ Gas for $765 million. Production during the third quarter was around 15,656 barrels of oil equivalent. Separately, the company said it sold its remaining interests in East Texas to an undisclosed buyer for an undisclosed sum.

"In a higher oil price environment, the Eagle Ford shale assets were a nice complement to our Marcellus shale position," Dan O. Dinges, the company's top official, said in a statement. "However, based on our current outlook for the oil markets and the resulting rates of return from these assets relative to our Marcellus shale returns, we did not plan to allocate any incremental capital to the Eagle Ford shale above the current maintenance capital levels."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration in August started consolidating data from the Marcellus and Utica shale basins that cover states from Ohio to New York because the overlapping formations made it difficult to determine how much was coming out of which basin distinctively.

 In its latest drilling productivity report, EIA said natural gas production from the Eagle Ford shale should increase less than 1 percent by January, while output from Appalachia increases 1.3 percent. In terms of volume, natural gas production from the Appalachia basin is about three times as much as Eagle Ford.

Total natural gas production for Cabot during the third quarter was at the low end of its expectations, in part because of the impact from Hurricane Harvey, which swept over parts of the Eagle Ford basin in late summer.

Cabot expects total production to increase by at least 15 percent next year. At least $750 million of its $1 billion budget range for 2018 is designated for the Appalachia basin.

Ultra Sells Marcellus Assets to Alta.  Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQ: UPL) today announced that it has reached a definitive agreement and closed on the sale to divest the Company’s non-operated asset in the Marcellus Shale to Alta Marcellus Development, LLC for a purchase price of $115 million in cash. The divested assets include current net production of 30 million cubic feet per day, which contributed PDP PV-10 of $79 million to the bank syndicate’s borrowing base, and associated gathering assets. This transaction will have no impact on the Company’s current borrowing base which remains at $1.4 billion.

Remember Alta bought Anadarko’s Marcellus Assets.  It’s obvious Alta’s making a Marcellus move.

Eclipse Sees Opportunities in the Utica in Northern PA.  Eclipse Resources’ new Flat Castle project in northcentral Pennsylvania is targeting what company officials call one of the best undiscovered drilling spots in the Appalachian Basin.

That is the way Eclipse chairman, president and CEO Benjamin W. Hurlburt described the acquisition of gas and oil leases on 44,500 net Utica Shale acres in northeast Potter and northwest Tioga counties in PA.

FERC Tells Rover It Can Restart all HDD Projects.  We have been waiting for this day for a LONG time. Yesterday the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued an order to Rover Pipeline allowing Rover to restart all outstanding underground horizontal directional drilling (HDD) projects, including the location at Tuscarawas River. All Rover HDD projects were stopped back in April following a string of “inadvertent returns” (i.e. leaks) of drilling mud, the most serious being a ~2 million gallon spill at the Tuscarawas River HDD location. Several months after stopping Rover HDD work, following investigations and corrective action, FERC slowly began to allow Rover to restart HDD work in some (not all) locations. There have been perhaps 4-5 tranches of “go ahead and restart HDD work at these couple of locations.” But until yesterday, Rover could not restart HDD at the location of the worst spill site, near the Tuscarawas River. With yesterday’s order, all sites are cleared. Craig “Captain Ahab” Butler, director of the Ohio EPA, blew a gasket. He’s still trying to harpoon the Rover “Moby Dick” Pipeline as it travels through Ohio. A few weeks ago Butler asked Rover (and FERC) to STOP all HDD work. A few days later Rover asked FERC for permission to restart the balance of their HDD work.

More Good News for Rover.  Energy Transfer Partners (ET) announced on Friday that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has granted ET permission to bring Rover Pipeline Phase 1B online–as of now.

Petroleum Demand Highest in 10 years.  Total petroleum deliveries in November rose to 19.9 million barrels per day (MMBPD), says the American Petroleum Institute -- the strongest November monthly demand since 2007, Kallanish Energy reports.

Though the first 11 months of 2017, total domestic petroleum deliveries rose by 0.9%, which exceeded demand growth in 2016, despite higher prices, the API reported.

“Petroleum demand remained strong despite higher prices than last year,” said API Chief Economist Dean Foreman, in a statement.

U.S. petroleum exports in November were up 22%, or about 1.2 MMBPD compared to November 2016, it said. That was largely due to U.S. crude prices trading at a discount compared to international crude prices and the Brent-WTI crude price differential above $6 per barrel at the end of November, it said.

Motor gasoline deliveries were the strongest ever for a November, the API said.

Goldman Projects a Big Year for Oil in 2018.  Big Oil’s slump is over, according to Goldman Sachs, as the oil industry’s biggest of the big companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and ExxonMobil, will have a surplus of cash in 2018, Kallanish Energy learns.

Those funds will pay dividends, and will allow the majors to push forward with deepwater mega-projects and to successfully negotiate tax deals with oil-reliant governments worldwide, Bloomberg reported.

The industry’s success in cutting costs, paired with a low oil price that keeps smaller competitors out of the biggest projects, has created an environment where only major players can compete, according to Michele Della Vigna, Goldman’s head of Energy Industry Research.

That should bolster earnings and return the industry giants to a position of dominance not seen in two decades, Bloomberg reported.

“We’re back to a concentrated market like we had in the 90s,” with the largest companies earning higher returns as the balance of power tips in their favor, Vigna said Thursday on Bloomberg television.

Oil majors had already been struggling for years when crude prices crashed by more than half beginning in mid-2014. Prices as high as $117 a barrel just before the slump spawned a multitude of smaller competitors, each posing a challenge to majors like BP Plc and Chevron, Bloomberg reported.

“That looked like a great time for the oil sector, but it was a horrendous time for Big Oil,” Vigna said. “Effectively everybody ate their lunch.”

After the oil price plunged three years ago, the market saw an overall retrenchment, with close to $1 trillion taken out of company spending, according to a report published Thursday by consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

Concurrently, banks pulled back from lending to companies based on their oil and gas reserves, which mostly stung smaller players with weaker balance sheets, said Vigna.

That means 90% of mega-projects in the last three years were initiated by the seven largest oil and gas companies, according to Vigna’s analysis. In the prior 10 years, investments in the largest projects were split between 50 companies, he said, Bloomberg reported.

This trend should continue because the economics of complex deepwater projects have gotten so much better that they now sit lower on the cost curve than shale oil, Vigna told Bloomberg. 

Big companies will find another benefit from the consolidation of power: more leverage in negotiations with governments, including on taxation, he added.

The recent announcement of Oasis Petroleum’s Delaware Basin acquisition marks another major Bakken producer re-positioning to focus its growth capital outside the Williston Basin.  What do these shifts signal about the future of the Williston Basin?  By choosing to look for growth elsewhere, Oasis answered two related questions: how it plans to increase its inventory of ‘premium’ well locations as well as where the company views its best opportunity for low-cost production growth. Because one of the largest Bakken pure plays chose this route, does it mean that Bakken upside is capped?

One concern mentioned by Bakken naysayers is that ‘premium’ inventory is running low, particularly compared to the opportunity set in other basins. BTU developed a new, well inventory model using the actual location of previously drilled wells, along with spacing, lateral and drainage assumptions to calculate remaining locations in each major shale basin, as featured in the most recent E&P Positioning Report. The chart below shows the remaining locations in the Bakken by breakeven band compared to BTU’s forecast for well completions in the basin. In addition to having less than 250 remaining locations that breakeven below $30/bbl wellhead, more than 70% of locations that breakeven below $50 will be exhausted over the next five years.

This is in contrast to the Permian Basin, where stacked pay greatly increases the number of potential locations. While the Bakken is a vast geographical area, well economics significantly deteriorate outside the core of the play in McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn and Williams counties. If we limited the remaining locations to just these counties, the potential wells that breakeven below $50 would only drop by 1%. However, the core is home to only 80% of the potential locations that breakeven above $50.

In addition to lack of potential well locations, the progression of breakeven improvement in the core of the Bakken hasn’t kept pace with other prolific basins since oil prices crashed, as shown by the chart below. In 2013, the average breakeven for a Bakken well was $58.45/bbl, compared to $61.81/bbl in the Delaware Basin and $71.40/bbl in the Midland Basin. So far in 2017, the Central Williston has a higher wellhead breakeven than either of those regions, at $38.52.

One reason for the smaller improvement in well economics in the Bakken relates to the innovation in well design that took place across shale basins since 2014. While numerous factors helped lower breakevens over the past few years, one of the most significant was the implementation of longer lateral lengths. In the Bakken, laterals have averaged around 10,000 ft since 2014. This early innovation gave Bakken wells somewhat of a head start in relation to breakevens. As other basins have begun to reap the benefits of longer laterals, Bakken economics haven’t been able to keep pace.

While these factors will certainly limit Bakken upside, the basin isn’t going anywhere. North Dakota remains the second largest oil producing state in the US and the Bakken has a large amount of DUCs to work off throughout 2018. However, the Bakken might be starting its transition to a cash cow that will be used to fund activity in other more promising regions. After all, the positive cash flow that Oasis expects to generate there in 2018 will be funneled south to subsidize the cash outspend in West Texas, as the company explained to investors in its recent Delaware acquisition call.

To see how BTU Analytics views oil production growth in the Bakken, Permian and other regions, check out our Upstream Outlook today. In addition, to see how the U.S. fits into the global energy landscape, register for our annual What Lies Ahead Conference before prices increase.

Enerplus to Drill 48 wells in the Bakken.  Calgary-based Enerplus has announced plans to spend between $535 million and $585 million on 2018 capital projects, with most of that money being spent in North Dakota’s liquids-rich Bakken Shale.

The company is earmarking 75% of its capital funds to operate two rigs and drill 45 gross operated wells (38 net) next year in North Dakota. It expects to complete 38 gross (33 net) wells in North Dakota in 2018.

That is an increase of 30% in operated wells drilled from a year earlier, due to drilling efficiencies and increased pad drilling, the company said.

It is expecting North Dakota 2018 production to grow by 30% year-over-year, Kallanish Energy learns.

The company’s 2018 focus in North Dakota will be on “continuous improvement in delivering top quartile capital efficiencies,” said president and CEO Ian C. Dundas, in a statement.

He said the company’s growth plan is “resilient and our balance sheet is expected to remain among the strongest in our peer group.”

Enerplus projects a jump in 2018 total production of 10%, and a 20% increase in liquids over 2017 totals. It said liquids will likely account for 55% of the company’s total production by the second half of next year.

Annual 2018 production is expected to average between 86,000 and 91,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (BOE/d), with liquids expected to average between 46,000 and 50,000 barrels per day (BPD).

Enerplus will spend 10% of its 2018 capital budget in the Marcellus Shale, to drill eight net wells and bring six net wells on production.

It will also spend 10% of the capital budget to drill 17 gross (15 net) producer and injection wells in its Canadian water flood portfolio in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Enerplus said it is continuing to divest itself of minor, non-core assets in Alberta for what it called “minimal proceeds.” Those deals will likely close soon.

The properties to be divested are producing about 1,400 BOE/d (70% natural gas), it said. They have higher cost structures and produce modest cash flow, the producer said.

More of China’s NatGas Problems.  China’s state planner Monday said it had asked national energy majors CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC to cut natural gas supplies to some industries by a total of roughly 15 million cubic meters per day (MMcm/d), Reuters reported.

The cutback is due to a shortage of gas in the world’s No.2 economy after a campaign to help clean up the environment by switching millions of households to natural gas from coal for heating.

The government has previously said supply to industry would be curbed, but Monday’s announcement -- covering makers of products such as chemicals, methanol and fertilizer - indicates the targeted size of cuts.

Meng Wei, spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a briefing Monday the government had coordinated with the three major energy companies to increase supplies by raising gas output, boosting imports and speeding up infrastructure construction, Kallanish Energy learns.

She added China planned to purchase 3.5 Bcm of liquefied natural gas in overseas markets in addition to its original plan to import 24.5 Bcm over the winter, Reuters reported.

The nation has also been sending 14 MMcm/d to its northern region from the south, with plans to boost that to roughly 19 million metric tons per day, said Meng.

CNOOC has rented a convoy of 100 trucks to ship LNG the length of the country to northern regions in the latest unusual, and costly, move to ease the growing fuel crisis.

Methane Emissions From Oil And Gas Are Plummeting Without Obama Rule. Daily Caller. Methane emissions from natural gas wells have dropped during the past six years, even as activists and lawmakers argue that stringent regulations are required to tackle what they believe are sky-high emission levels. Emissions from onshore natural gas production tumbled nearly 14 million metric tons between 2011 and 2016, according to a report from Energy In Depth, which analyzed data from the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. The data also found that levels had decreased even as natural gas production increased. In the San Juan Basin, an area located in parts of New Mexico and Colorado, emissions fell by 47 percent since 2011. Activists frequently claim that San Juan’s methane hot spot releases are reason enough for bulking up rules governing emissions. 

Frackers push back against need for methane regs with new report. Washington Examiner. Methane emissions have been on a steady decline since 2011, according to a report released Wednesday that looks to rebuff activists’ claims that oil and natural gas production from fracking is raising methane emissions and exacerbating climate change. Methane emissions across the country dropped between 2011 to 2016, even as oil and natural gas production increased significantly, according to Seth Whitehead, author of the new report from Energy In Depth reviewed by the Washington Examiner ahead of its release. The industry has been trying to get across the idea that companies can cut emissions voluntarily, as environmental groups head to court to sue the Trump administration for rolling back the Obama administration’s suite of methane rules targeting fracking. The report uses greenhouse gas reporting data from the Environmental Protection Agency to debunk anti-fossil fuel activists with the “Keep It In the Ground” movement, who “claim that fracking is driving global methane emissions and exacerbating climate change,” according to the report. “It also demonstrates that voluntary emission reduction efforts have been effective,” Whitehead said, countering the activists’ “narrative that sweeping federal regulations are necessary to reduce methane emissions.”

More DUCs.  The number of DUCs, drilled, but uncompleted wells, continues to climb in the Lower 48 U.S. states' seven most prolific basins/plays, according to the Energy Information Administration’s December "Drilling Productivity Report" (DPR).

From October to November, total DUCs increased by 94, to 7,354, with five of the seven regions recording a month-to-month DUC increase.

The biggest October-to-November increase was in the Permian Basin, up 96 DUCs, to 2,613. The Eagle Ford Shale gained 19 DUCs, to 1,441; followed by the Anadarko, a gain of 10, to 977; the Haynesville, up two DUCs to 195; and Appalachia, up a lone DUC, to 785.

The Niobrara saw a 23- DUC drop, to 630; and the Bakken’s DUC count fell by 11, to 713, according to the DPR.

Appalachian Basin NatGas Going to the Gulf.  Last week Columbia Pipeline Group (now part of TransCanada) filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to begin service on their Leach XPress pipeline. This is BIG and important news. In August 2014, MDN told you that Columbia Pipeline Group decided to move forward with investing $1.75 billion dollars for two new projects: Leach XPress and Rayne XPress. The Leach XPress project involves building ~160 miles of natural gas pipeline and compression facilities in southeastern Ohio and West Virginia’s northern panhandle, flowing 1.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas all the way to Leach, Kentucky (hence the name). Rayne XPress works hand in glove with Leach. There is an existing NatGas pipeline from Leach, KY all the way to the Louisiana Gulf Coast, called Rayne. The pipeline is named for the location it flows to: Rayne, Louisiana. The Rayne Xpress project beefs up the Rayne pipeline with new compressor stations to add an additional 1 Bcf per day of capacity–Marcellus and Utica Shale gas capacity that will flow to the Gulf Coast. Rayne went online in early November. When Leach goes online Jan. 1, 2018 (yes, we expect FERC will approve it), Marcellus/Utica gas will begin flowing along the combined pipelines all the way to the Gulf. That’s big news!

Expectations for a Big Jump in Crude Production.  Crude oil production from the Lower 48 U.S. states’ seven most productive basins/plays will start the new year off with a big increase, the Energy Information Administration projects in its December "Drilling Productivity Report" (DPR).

Oil production from December to January will jump 94,000 barrels per day (BPD). Six of the seven basins/plays tracked by DPR will see a month-to-month increase in crude production, with only the Haynesville Shale flat, at 44,000 BPD.

The biggest jump is projected for the Permian, up 68,000 BPD, to 2.79 million barrels per day (MMBPD), Kallanish Energy reports. Other crude production increases are projected for the Bakken, up 9,000 BPD, to 1.18 MMBPD; the Niobrara, up 6,000 BPD, to 549,000 BPD; the Anadarko and the Eagle Ford, each up 4,000 BPD, to 487,000 BPD and 1.24 MMBPD, respectively.

Appalachia, which includes the Marcellus and Utica Shale plays, is expected to see a 3,000 BPD crude production increase from December to January, to 114,000 BPD, the DPR projects.

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PA Permits December 14, 2017 to December 21, 2017

            County                                        Township                                          E&P Companies

  1. Allegheny                                       Forward                                             EQT
  2. Allegheny                                      Forward                                             EQT
  3. Allegheny                                      Forward                                             EQT
  4. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  5. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  6. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  7. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  8. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  9. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  10. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  11. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  12. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  13. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  14. Beaver                                         Independence                                  Range
  15. Bradford                                       Leroy                                                  Chief
  16. Bradford                                       Leroy                                                  Chief
  17. Bradford                                       Stevens                                             SWN
  18. Bradford                                       Stevens                                             SWN
  19. Bradford                                       Stevens                                             SWN
  20. Bradford                                       Stevens                                             SWN
  21. Lycoming                                     Cogan House                                   Alta Resource
  22. Tioga                                            Morris                                                 Shell
  23. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  24. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  25. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  26. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  27. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  28. Washington                                Blaine                                                Range
  29. Washington                                East Finley                                        EQT
  30. Washington                                Union                                                 EQT
  31. Westmoreland                            Derry                                                  XPR Resources

OH Permits for week December 16, 2017

           County                                       Township                                          E&P Companies

  1. Belmont                                       Goshen                                              Rice
  2. Belmont                                       Washington                                      Gulfport
  3. Belmont                                       Washington                                      Gulfport
  4. Belmont                                       Smith                                                  Gulfport
  5. Belmont                                       Smith                                                  Gulfport
  6. Belmont                                       Pease                                                 Gulfport
  7. Belmont                                       Pease                                                 Gulfport
  8. Harrison                                       Archer                                               Chesapeake
  9. Jefferson                                     Mt. Pleasant                                      Ascent
  10. Jefferson                                     Mt. Pleasant                                      Ascent
  11. Jefferson                                     Mt. Pleasant                                      Ascent

Joe Barone 610.764.1232
Vera Anderson 570.337.7149

Utica Summit 2019